LEAD Action News Volume
13 Number 4, June 2013, ISSN 1324-6011 Incorporating Lead Aware Times ( ISSN 1440-4966) and Lead Advisory Service News (ISSN 1440-0561) The Journal of The LEAD (Lead Education and Abatement Design) Group Inc. Editorial Team: Elizabeth O’Brien, Zac Gethin-Damon, Hitesh Lohani, Shristi Lohani and David Ratcliffe |
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The vision that 100% of lead used per annum will by 2025 be in lead acid batteries Emails by Elizabeth O'Brien, President at The LEAD Group Inc & Peter Hurley, Managing Director at Cylenchar Limited On 07/15/12 7:55 PM, Elizabeth O'Brien wrote:
Dear Peter, I've initiated a new Lead-Safe World Project and I'm looking for sponsors among the lead industry, lead-substitute industry and other lead-related industries. My vision is that by approximately 2025, all the lead in the world will be being made into batteries to store renewable energy like solar and wind energy, because by that time, there'll be precious little fossil fuels left for manufacturing anything. I came up with the year 2025 by plotting the percentage of lead used in batteries in 1970, 1990 and approximately 2007, and continuing the straight line trend to 100% of all lead use. It hits the year 2025. Is it reasonable to hold the vision that 100% of Pb used per annum will one day be used to make lead acid batteries? Cheers Elizabeth O'Brien, Australia From: Peter Hurley via LinkedIn Sent: Monday, July 16, 2012 7:14 PMTo: Elizabeth O'Brien Subject: RE: Is it reasonable to hold the vision that 100% of Pb used per annum will one day be used to make lead acid batteries? Hi Elizabeth as lead-tin solders are finally squeezed out of consumer goods, more lead will go into batteries than into other products. Lead batteries for power-back-up and storage demand will grow as smaller micro generation schemes increase across the developed and developing world. But car consumption will always be number 1. And eventually electric cars/hybrids will replace the combustion engine, and they will use even more lead. The anticipated continued growth in demand assumes that a 'disruptive technology' such as the sodium-sulfur battery does not become commercial. If it ever does, world consumption of lead would plummet 50% in 10-20 years, assuming that the major car manufacturers don't resist it. Best regards Peter From: Elizabeth O'Brien via LinkedIn Sent: Thursday, June 20, 2013 11:46 AM To: Elizabeth O'Brien Subject: RE: Is it reasonable to hold the vision that 100% of Pb used per annum will one day be used to make lead acid batteries? Dear Peter, I wasn't predicting that lead consumption overall would remain at current levels - and I agree with your argument that total lead used will fall if another battery technology becomes popular. My prediction however, is in compliance with every trend you've commented on. My prediction is that 100% of the lead used will be used to make lead acid batteries by 2025. The only way it will not be 100% is if there is some other lead product which is irreplaceable with less toxic alternatives: the only lead uses that I can think of, which may not be fully replaced with less toxic alternatives would be x-ray shielding and ammunition. I'd be interested in your thoughts on those uses and any others which you think are likely to haunt us for decades to come. Cheers Elizabeth From: Elizabeth O'Brien via LinkedIn Sent: Friday, June 21, 2013 1:05 AM To: Elizabeth O'Brien Subject: RE: Is it reasonable to hold the vision that 100% of Pb used per annum will one day be used to make lead acid batteries? Hi Elizabeth Tungsten is slowly replacing lead X-ray shielding in medical diagnostics. Pure lead is only being retained in the nuclear industry as its stable long term, whereas tungsten composites are not. Viz ammunition. The Germans are openly talking of a complete lead ban and the US Army is deploying tin-bismuth alloy in theatre and solid copper in training. Viz batteries. Slim plates based on lead-tin alloy are replacing lead-antimony, reducing the overall weight of lead and cost in a battery whilst significantly improving its working life. Lead acid batteries will continue to me the major battery type at least until the middle of the current century. Perhaps by then lithium ion - manganese capacitor technology will replace it. Best regards |
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